The Eviction Math Most San Diego Owners Don’t Run

I have sat across from owners at every stage of an eviction, and the number that shocks them is never the attorney’s invoice. It is the total.

The arithmetic of a failed tenancy

Run the arithmetic on a $3,500 per month San Diego rental where the tenancy fails. The unpaid rent starts accumulating before anyone files anything: call it two months of nonpayment before the process begins in earnest. The unlawful detainer process itself, filing through judgment through lockout, runs months in San Diego’s courts even when it goes cleanly, and the rent meter runs the whole time. Legal costs land in the thousands for an uncontested case and multiply when it is contested. Then the property comes back, and it rarely comes back rentable: repairs, cleaning, turnover. Then vacancy while it re-leases.

What it stacks up to

Stack it up: four to six months of lost rent at $3,500 is $14,000 to $21,000. Legal costs, several thousand more. Make-ready after a hostile departure, several thousand more. A realistic total for a single failed placement on an ordinary San Diego rental runs $20,000 to $30,000, and I have seen worse. One failed placement can erase two years of the property’s net income.

The other side of the ledger

Now run the other side of the ledger. The things that prevent failed placements are cheap in comparison to the point of absurdity. Rigorous screening costs application-fee money and discipline. The difference between a screening process that checks seven things and one that checks two is not visible on the day the lease is signed. It is visible eighteen months later, in which of the two tenancies still works.

Where eviction protection fits

This is also the honest context for eviction protection coverage. The coverage we build around managed properties, provided through a licensed third-party insurance provider, includes eviction legal costs up to $5,000 plus sheriff fees, and up to twelve weeks of lost rent. That exists because even good screening is probability, not certainty. But coverage is the second line. The first line is never needing it, and that line is built during the two weeks the property is being shown, not the two years the tenant lives there.

The math is asymmetric

The eviction math has one more feature worth naming: it is asymmetric. Doing screening right costs the same whether it was needed or not. Doing it wrong costs $25,000, but only sometimes, which is exactly the kind of risk people underweight until it lands on them. Owners who think in expected value screen hard every time.

Joe Wiseman is a licensed California broker (DRE #02043323) and owns Best Nest Property Management in San Diego.